Telehealth May Represent Up to 30% of US Medical Visits by 2026
Telemedicine's trajectory depends far more on future regulatory action than on health care's readiness or patient desire, according to a new report.
Telemedicine may account for 25% to 30% of all US medical visits by 2026, an evolution that will be driven primarily by anticipated regulatory support rather than technological advances, according to authors of a forecast by health care IT firm Sciencesoft.1
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While pandemic-era telehealth usage has declined significantly from peak levels, there is still sustained demand in specific specialties and mounting pressure on regulators suggests growth will continue.
Mental Health Exception
Mental health care demonstrates telemedicine's potential when regulatory and reimbursement barriers are lowered. Data from Epic Research show 38% of mental health visits occurred remotely in 2023—more than triple the rate of other medical specialties.2
“The resilient utilization in mental health shows that the necessary technology and demand are already in place,” Gala Batsishcha, MD, a health care IT consultant at ScienceSoft, wrote in the February forecast. “The future of its adoption — whether it continues to increase or returns to pre-pandemic levels, largely depends on government decision-makers.”1
The mental health sector also leads in e-prescribing adoption. A report from Trilliant Health found that electronic prescriptions accounted for approximately one-third of antidepressant prescriptions in Q3 2023.3
Infrastructure Exceeds Utilization
Hospital systems have largely completed their technological preparation for telemedicine expansion. Data from Definitive Healthcare shows more than three-quarters (78.6%) of US hospitals had implemented telemedicine solutions by February 2024.4 The rapid development of infrastructure occurred primarily during the COVID-19 pandemic, when relaxed federal regulation and expanded reimbursement policies drove widespread adoption.
Despite the level of readiness, however, utilization is not matching availability. Data from the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services indicate telemedicine visits now represent only 4% to 6% of total medical encounters,5 a dramatic decrease from pandemic highs. Epic Research reports similar findings, with telehealth comprising approximately 6% of visits in 2023.2
Congress extended many Medicare telehealth flexibilities through September 30, 2025, including expanded access to virtual visits from home and support for a broader range of physicians. But programs like audio-only visit reimbursement, telehealth allowances for high-deductible health plans and cross-state licensing reforms were left out of the extension.1
Clinicians Want Balance
For clinicians, telehealth offers efficiency gains, reduced no-shows, and opportunities to offload lower-acuity visits. The ScienceSoft report notes that virtual care models — like remote patient monitoring (RPM) and digital triage — can expand capacity without increasing overhead, a crucial benefit for resource-strapped practices. But not all clinicians are convinced telehealth is all good.1
“It’s important to strike a balance here,” Batsishcha wrote. “For routine follow-ups, medication refills, mental health consultations or minor ailments like colds and flu, virtual visits can be an excellent way to save time and reduce strain on the health care system. However, for more complex or urgent issues … an in-person visit is crucial for an accurate diagnosis and immediate intervention.”1
For many, the concern is that critical symptoms could be missed without a physical exam, and the interpersonal trust of the physician-patient relationship could erode if telehealth services become overused or impersonal.
Up to Congress
Congressional action will largely determine telemedicine's growth trajectory, Batsishcha and coauthors predict. Pandemic-era regulatory relaxations expired December 31, 2024, creating uncertainty for healthcare systems planning long-term telehealth strategies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates permanent extensions would increase Medicare spending by $2 billion,3 and that could complicate legislative approval.
There is reason for greater optimism at the state level. As of January 2025, nearly half of US states have implemented payment parity policies ensuring equal reimbursement for telehealth and in-person visits.6 The American Hospital Association and other healthcare organizations continue advocating for permanent federal policy extensions.8
Growth Will be Gradual
Healthcare leaders predict measured expansion rather than dramatic surges in telehealth adoption. One expert estimates it will be 5 years before telemedicine reaches utilization of 50% to 70% in appropriate clinical scenarios.10
In parallel, ScienceSoft researchers recommend that health care professionals prepare for what will be incremental but ultimately substantia growth in telemedicine, even as lawmakers remain short on long-term certainty.
Key preparation areas include:
- Staff training programs for all experience levels
- Clear clinical protocols for remote versus in-person care decisions
- Technology infrastructure capable of supporting increased volume
- Regulatory compliance systems for evolving state and federal requirements
- Quality metrics adapted for telehealth service delivery
The evidence suggests telemedicine represents a permanent shift in healthcare delivery rather than a temporary pandemic response. Organizations that develop comprehensive telehealth strategies now will be better positioned for the anticipated growth period ahead.
