New Data Shows Risk of Major Depressive Disorder Spikes After a Medical Diagnosis: Daily Dose

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On August 20, 2025, we reported on a study published in The Lancet Public Health that aimed to clarify whether major depressive disorder (MDD) risk increases immediately or is delayed after the diagnosis of a chronic medical condition, and whether certain subgroups are more susceptible than others.

The study

Researchers used Denmark’s comprehensive nationwide health registries to retrospectively follow 6 528 353 residents between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2022. Exclusion criteria included any diagnosis of depression or a medical condition during a 5-year washout period before entering the cohort. The study examined onset of MDD across 9 medical categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematological, cancers, and neurologic conditions.

For purposes of the study, MDD was defined by ICD-10 codes or repeated prescription of antidepressants. Adjusted Cox regression models accounted for key covariates, with subgroup analyses by age, number of comorbidities, clinical setting of diagnosis, and sex.

The findings

Results showed that after onset of any medical condition, the risk of developing MDD was more than 2 times greater (hazard ratio [HR] 2.26; 95% CI 2.25–2.28) among affected individuals compared to those without a medical condition. Within the first month of onset, the MDD risk doubled to more than 4 times greater (HR, 4.62, 95% CI 4.50–4.74). During that first month following onset, the highest rates of MDD were recorded in:

• Hospitalized patients (HR 11.83, 11.25–12.45),

• Adults aged 60 years and older (HR 9.04, 8.63–9.47)

• Individuals with at least 2 comorbid conditions (HR 8.92, 8.74–9.11)

Even 20 years after onset of a condition, the absolute risk for MDD was 18.9% in men and 24.4% in women compared with 6.9% in matched men without a medical condition and 10.7% in matched women.

Authors' comments

"These findings can be used for early detection and to give attention to specific groups in the period after onset of medical conditions."

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